ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ
1
2024 U.S. Presidential Election Results Calculator
by Michael Bluejay
2
Last update:
5/1/24
3
4
BidenTrump
5
6
Without RFK Jr. in the race
4242
7
260278
Electoral votes based on swing state polls (see analysis below)
4348
8
260278
Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are inaccurate as in 2020
4146
9
45.4%46.6%
Popular vote (RealClearPolitics polling average) • Lastest poll:
4/28/244246
10
40.050.0
11
With RFK Jr. in the race
41.646.4
12
260278Electoral votes based on swing state polls (see analysis below)
13
260278
Electoral votes based on swing state polls, if polls are inaccurate as in 2020
45.543.5
14
44.5%45.0%
ElectionBettingOdds.com
15
42.3%42.2%
Average of 9 betting sites
16
5047PredictIt
17
36.3%41.7%
Popular vote, with JFK in race (RCP avg.) • Latest poll:
4/25/24
18
43.546.5
19
Swing state polls analysis
20
This expains how I arrived at the numbers above. Unless you want the details, all you need is the summary above.

Nationwide polling averages aren't helpful b/c the election isn't decided by the popular vote, it's decided by the electoral college. So, this analysis figures the electoral vote count. It does this by looking only at the polls in the 5 swing states, because those are the ones which will decide the election. From the 45 "safe" states, Biden starts with 241 electoral votes and Trump starts with 235. (This includes that since 2020, a small number of states saw small changes in their total number of electoral votes.) We then add the electoral votes for the five states below as predicted by current polling.

2020 polling in those states were off by a little to a lot, depending on the state. So, the results are given two ways: First, assuming current polling is correct, and second, adjusting those polls for the polling error in 2020.

I use the last month's polls from FiveThirtyEight.com for each of the 5 swing states (with the end defined defined as the date of the most recent poll, not necessarily today). If there is no poll within the last month, I use the most recent.
21
Without RFK Jr.
22
State2020 pollsBiden actualError2024 polls2024 if same errorLatest pollElectoral votesUsing actual pollsUsing adjusted polls
23
Blue=Error favors Biden
Red=Error favors Trump ↓
Poll leaderPts. aheadBiden positionBidenTrumpBidenTrump
24
GATrump +1.00.24-0.76Trump5.4-4.644/16/24161616RCP538
25
AZBiden +0.90.310.59Trump4.5-5.094/21/24111111RCP
26
WIBiden +6.70.636.07Trump2.7-8.84/25/24101010538
27
PABiden 1.21.160.04Biden0.60.564/25/24191919
28
NVBiden +2.42.390.01Trump4.6-4.614/14/24666
29
Polls last checked
5/1/2419431943
30
With RFK Jr.
31
State2020 pollsBiden actualError2024 polls2024 if same errorLatest pollElectoral votesUsing actual pollsUsing adjusted polls
32
Blue=Error favors Biden
Red=Error favors Trump ↓
Poll leaderPts. aheadBiden positionBidenTrumpBidenTrump
33
GATrump +1.00.24-0.76Trump5.5-4.744/16/24161616
34
AZBiden +0.90.310.59Trump5.5-6.094/13/24111111
35
WIBiden +6.70.636.07Trump0.8-6.874/25/24101010
36
PABiden 1.21.160.04Biden0.50.464/25/24191919538
37
NVBiden +2.42.390.01Trump6-6.014/14/24666
38
Polls last checked
5/1/2419431943
39
40
41
42
43
Paths to 270 electoral votes in the 2024 Presidential Election
44
Number of electoral votes for each candidate winning all the states on a certain row
45
NV (6)WI (10)AZ (11)GA (16)PA (19)State votesBidenTrump
46
Biden starts with 241 electoral votes, Trump with 235, based on "safe" states.
47
Winning 5 states
48
61011161962303297
49
Winning 4 states:
50
1011161956297291
51
611161952293287
52
610161951292286
53
610111946287281
54
610111643284278
55
Winning 3 states:
56
11161946287281
57
10161945286280
58
10111940281275
59
10111637278272
60
6161941282276
61
6111936277271
62
6111633274
63
6101935276270
64
6101632273
65
6101127
66
Winning 2 states:
67
161935276270
68
111930271
69
111627
70
101929270
71
101626
72
101125
73
61922
74
61617
75
61116
76
61016
77
Number of paths to victory
1814
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100